Predictions of 2004 vs. How the world turned out to be

18 years ago was written an Information Society Report by Pekka Himanen, where predictions about our potential future were made. Some of them turned to be very precise, some of them were a bit off the reality.


Increasing international tax competition 

I have to say that this prediction is very accurate. Meta, Apple and Google all have their branches in Ireland in order to reduce their taxes. Many millionares live in Monaco in order to avoid paying income tax. Many countries are worried about the fact that their income from tax is smaller because of the tax competition.


The new global division of labour

This vision of the future was also very on point. Almost all corporations have their factories in countries like China. Nowadays, that the China has become a much wealthier country, Africa is becoming 'China's China'. Many manufacturers from China are looking into options of starting their productions in countries like Uganda, Rwanda and Zimbabwe. Countries that are becoming wealthier, can't rely on primary and secondary economic sectors. For example, Estonia has moved away from agriculture to IT.

Population ageing

Population ageing is a problem that is becoming more and more noticeable, especially in well-developed countries. People have moved away from having more than 3 kids in their family, and nowadays are holding back until they are more mature and well-established in the society. On the other hand, in developing countries, medicine allows for every kid to grow up and become an adult. However, their society has not yet adapted to concept of having less than 2 kids. Because of that, their population is becoming younger. So, I can say that this statement is only partially right.

Increased pressures on the welfare state

I can't agree with this statement, due to improvements in health care, people nowadays retire at a later age, therefore working longer. Also, many innovations and technologies have led to relief of pressure on the welfare state. Nowadays, more and more financial supports are created and government takes care of those in financial needs.

The second phase of the information society: from technological to social development

This statement has to be the most accurate of them all. Even though technologies have evolved, the way we use them has changed our social life drastically. Everyone uses messengers to chat, dating apps to find couple, most meetings nowadays are held online, people don't have to go to a certain facility to fill in some paperwork or apply for something as it can be done online. Studying has become much easier with search engines and free tutorials and courses. This list can go on and on. It is very exciting to see what the future holds for us.


The rise of cultural industries

Digitalisation of content was already happening when this article was written - iTunes and iPod were already 3 years old. Even though this prediction was true, it wasn't very out of the ordinary. Almost all content that people consume nowadays is digital. 


The rise of bio-industries

Even though it hasn't happened yet, I can see genetic engineering being a very important technology in the near future. So maybe in another 18 years the same article could be written, where the author discusses whether bio-industries have become crucial in our society.

Regional concentration 

At the time of writing these predictions, it was very clear that people are moving into the cities. However, nowadays more and more people prefer to get away from hustle of the big cities, and live in a suburban area in their private house. And with the rise of technology, people are able to work at home and do most of their activities without the need of going to the city.


A deepening global divide

Even though many governments are implementing socialist policies of trying to divide wealth more equally, rich people are still getting richer and poor people are getting poorer. It was especially noticeable during the pandemic, where many people have lost their job and billionaires have made a fortune and broke new records for wealthiest man on Earth.


The spread of a “culture of emergency”

Many people are becoming more aware of the environmental consequences made by the humanity. However, people are not able to unite to tackle these problems. Taking care of the environment has to be everyone's concern and everyone should take care of it.


All in all, these predictions were pretty accurate and most of them came out to be true. It is very exciting what the future holds for us and what the year 2040 will look like.





References:

  1. Challenges of the Global Information Society. https://web.archive.org/web/20170221105053/https://www.eduskunta.fi/FI/tietoaeduskunnasta/julkaisut/Documents/tuvje_1+2004.pdf

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